March News Summary
- DUHKPASS
- Mar 14, 2024
- 8 min read
By Toby Tsui
Global
Analysis: Protest in Moscow sparks as central-Asian-ally Armenia continues to realign westward
The alliance between Armenia and Russia has been ongoing since the dissolution of the
USSR in the 1991. Both members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation
(CSTO), Armenia viewed Russia as an important security partner in securing peace between
her and Azerbaijan. Russia currently has both ground and air troops stationed in Armenia in
the 102nd Military Base.
However, relations continued to deteriorate since 2018, after the Armenia revolution, and
especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Armenia condemned Russia for failing to
uphold her responsibilities as her security guarantor, by diverting most resources into
Ukraine. In September 2023, Azerbaijan invaded Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian exclave in
Azerbaijan, with Russian peacekeepers failing to protect Armenian territories.
The now shaky alliance is now every more unstable, as diplomatic missions between
Armenia and NATO countries continue to increase. On Friday, 23rd of February, French
Armed Forces Minster Sébastien Lecornu met with his Armenian counterpart Suren
Papikyan in discussing greater ties and cooperation, with the meeting resulted in the signing
of contract for France to sell military equipment, such as missiles and assault rifles to
Armenia.
Armenia additionally formally joined the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Wednesday,
31st of January, angering Moscow as the ICC has issued a warrant for arrest against Russian
president Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine. Armenia will now be legally obligated to
arrest the president if he were to visit Armenia.
The visit by Armenian Prime Minster Nikol Pashinyan to Greece meeting his counterpart on
the 27th of February and the participation in the trilateral peace talk between her and
Azerbaijan in Berlin on 28th of February further proved Armenia’s determination in seeking
security protection from the West and dropping Russia.
As Pashinyan said when he was speaking to France24 on Friday, 23rd of February, “Armenia
has effectively suspended its membership in the CSTO.”
The geopolitical impact of Armenia’s realignment is immense, as Russia continues to
struggle to hold on to ex-Soviet allies in the Caucasus and central Asia. A western friendly
Armenia also means the West now have stronger access into central Asia, which have been
dominated by pro-Russian dictatorships.
References:
Hong Kong
Government budget deficit rose to 101 billion HKD in the city’s newest Budget report
On Wednesday, 28th of February, Financial Secretary Paul Chan revealed the newest
estimated budget deficit, with the city recording a deficit of 54.4 billion HKD in 2023.
Currently, the budget deficit is expected to continue until the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Though expected, the deficit hitting over 100 billion HKD still have major implications in
Hong Kong’s staggering economy.
To boost the economy after the Covid-19 pandemic, many “sweetener” schemes were
introduced. Hong Kong’s public spending as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is
the highest since Paul Chan became Financial Secretary, with the government allocating
25% of GDP onto public spending.
The lacklustre performance of the Housing market also contributed to the deficit, with the
government citing a substantial reduction in land premium and stamp duty income.
However, citing this year’s economic performance, cuts in public spending were introduced,
with the ever more costly transport subsidy, such as the “2 dollar scheme” came under
review. The yearly consumption vouchers scheme is also rejected for the coming fiscal year
to reduce spending, saying it is “unnecessary to boost growth” in Cantonese.
Tax rises are also included in the budget report, with tobacco tax expected to rise for the
second consecutive year. Although the Chan stated the purpose of the tax is to “put public
off smoking”, many suggested that the tax rise is mainly due to the growing budget deficit.
Chan also suggested the implementation of a 3% Hotel tax, and a rise in salary tax rate for
people earning over 5 million HKD annually.
Hong Kong’s economy, though recovering, is still overseeing a period of slow growth and
moderate inflation. Although the inflation rate for the 2023-24 fiscal year is only 1.7%, Chan
also stated that “prices of individual items such as energy, clothing and footwear, as well as
meals out and takeaway food rose visibly”.
The continued emigration wave and many citizens’ pessimistic view on the city’s future, as
well as the recessive global economic climate, should all be noted as reasons behind the
city’s sluggish economic recovery. The economic future of Hong Kong remains unclear.
Healing the city’s political woes is pivotal for the government to boost the economy, and
only time will tell if the city can regain its former prominence as the ‘Pearl of the East’.
References:
United Kingdom
Speaker sir Lindsay Hoyle’s reputation in tatters as 90 MPs signed a no confidence motion
Sir Lindsay Hoyle, incumbent speaker, is now in a precarious situation after chaos during the
Gaza ceasefire debate last Wednesday (21st of February). The early day motion (EDM) of no
confidence against the speaker is as of today signed by 92 MPs. This come after the Welsh
nationalist party Plaid Cymru joined the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Conservatives MP
in the signing the motion.
The unusual alliance between nationalist regional parties and the conservatives came as a
result of the Speaker’s convention-breaking decision in prioritising Labour in the Gaza
ceasefire debate. The debate, tabled by the SNP in pressuring the Conservative government
for a complete ceasefire in Gaza, was replaced with Labour’s amendment in favour of a
“humanitarian ceasefire”, effectively ignored the SNP’s position in the debate. This move
was also convention-breaking, as usually opposition parties cannot table amendments in
debates tabled by another opposition – only the governing party can table amendments. It
therefore enraged not only the SNP, but also a portion of Conservative MPs.
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said in a statement that the Parliament “failed the
people of Gaza by blocking a vote”.
Plaid Cymru’s support for the EDM came as a shock to some as the party was not involved in
the tabling and the amendments of the debate. The party’s Westminster leader however,
criticised the Speaker’s decision as “a profound disregard for small parties in Westminster”.
Allegations were also made against the Labour party in threatening the Speaker, a former
Labour MP, into prioritising Labour’s amendments, with Alba MP Neale Hanvey calling for
an investigation into the party regarding the allegations. Labour leader Keir Starmer denied
all allegations last Thursday and supported the Speaker, saying “he did the right thing in
making sure the debate was broad”.
The SNP is now calling for another emergency debate on the matter, with the Speaker
rejecting their request as of now.
The Gaza vote might remove the Speaker if the government officially announce their
support for the EDM. Currently, only a portion of backbench Conservative MPs have signed
the motion.
References:
United States
Implications of the Presidential Primary results in Michigan: another rematch?
Results from the Democratic and Republican Primary were just confirmed, with incumbent
Democratic president Joe Biden and former Republican president Donald Trump both
winning their bid respectively. The vote on 27 th of February saw Joe Biden winning 81% of
the votes and Donald Trump winning 78% of the votes.
In his victory speech, Donald Trump briefly remarked on the results, “we have a very simple
task, we have to win on November 5th . We win Michigan, we win the whole thing.” The
result came as no shock, as Trump’s primary challenger, Nikki Haley, continues to
underperform both in the polls and in the ballots. However, she made clear that she is not
going to drop out, with her campaign emphasising on Trump’s electoral failure since 2016.
Current polling suggests Nikki Haley will lose in a landslide against Trump, but we will have
to wait until March 5th .
March 5th , or ‘Super Tuesday’, will be the last realistic chance for Haley to win the
Republican primary, as 15 states hold their primaries, but current polling believes she will
lose by a landslide, as the United States embraces for a Biden-Trump rematch in November.
Joe Biden, as the sole competitive challenger in the Democratic Primary, won decisively in
Michigan. However, Biden’s winning percentage dropped by 9 percent when compared to
the previous primary in Nevada. The Michigan Protest Movement successfully campaigned
against Biden on his position on Gaza, with the ‘uncommitted’ position gaining 13% of the
votes in the primary. With current polling in the United States continue to show likely
Democratic voters’ overwhelming support for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, such as the
new survey from Data For Progress (link below), it came as no surprise that Joe Biden has
been receiving backlash from the left of the party regarding his position.
The pro-Palestinian groups in swing states, such as Michigan, might be the key for Joe Biden
to secure his 2024 presidential bid. If he continues with his current pro-Israel stance,
democratic minority groups such as the Muslim population might vote for third-party or
even worse for Biden, voting for Trump. As the Michigan Protest Movement stated after the
release of the Democratic primary results, “Count us out, Joe”.
Biden, though did not directly respond to the movement, said on Monday, 26th of February
that “a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be in place in a week”, showing his
changing stance on the conflict and the strength of the protest votes.
References:
European Union
What the farmers protest across the EU means for the EU’s climate aspirations and the future of the union
The European Union is now stuck in a dilemma – with European farmers from Spain to
Poland in fury due to increase costs by conforming to environmental targets, and costs
relating to climate-change-induced natural disasters, while the European Parliament
continue to try passing the European Green Deal. On Monday, 26 th of February, European
farmers gathered in Brussels, next to the European Council building to protest against the
new Nature Restoration Law.
Armed with tractors, eggs and firecrackers, farmers expressed their concern with ‘excessive’
environmental regulation and unfairly cheap imports from outside EU. This comes as no
surprise, as the Bill has been criticised by the European right as undermining food security,
fuel inflation and hurt farmers.
The new law will require member states to meet restoration targets for specific natural
habitats and species, to soccer 20% of the regions’ land and sea areas by 2030.
Legislator from the centre-left group S&D in the European Parliament César Luena said,
“today is an important day for Europe as we move from protecting and conserving nature to
restoring it [..] and also help us to fulfil many of our international environmental
commitments”.
The Bill passed the Parliament by 329-275 earlier, with the support of all left of centre right
parties throwing their support.
It is not just the Bill, too – the flooding of Ukrainian agricultural imports into the EU under a
tariff-free scheme introduced after the outbreak of the invasion also damaged internal EU
markets. EU farmers are earning much less as prices are forced down by cheap Ukrainian
imports.
The potential repercussion for the farmers’ protest can be long-lasting. As we quickly
approach the June EU Parliament elections, far-right parties across the EU wishes to utilise
the dissatisfaction among farmers into electoral success, which has been successful so far,
as seen by Germany’s far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) gaining electoral success in
across states in Germany.
If the current trend continues into June and a right-wing Parliament is elected, we might
notice a sharp drop in environmental policies. Even worse, successionist far-right parties
might even threaten the integrity of the Union by over-prioritising state interests.
References:
Commentaires